森麒麟（002984）：短期业绩承压，关税不确定性仍存

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of 26.91 RMB [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 8.5 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9%, and a net profit of 2.2 billion RMB, reflecting a significant growth of 60% year-on-year [1]. - Despite short-term performance pressures and uncertainties due to tariffs, the company is expected to enhance its global competitiveness in the long run through new capacity ramp-up and cost advantages [1][3]. - The company has a strong order demand for its high-quality semi-steel tires in overseas markets, with a 12% increase in overseas revenue to 7.6 billion RMB in 2024 [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.1 billion RMB, a decrease of 3% quarter-on-quarter, and a net profit of 360 million RMB, down 28% quarter-on-quarter [1][3]. - The sales volume for semi-steel tires in Q1 2025 was 7.16 million units, a decrease of 2% quarter-on-quarter, while the sales volume for all-steel tires was 210,000 units, down 35% quarter-on-quarter [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downwards due to tariff impacts, with expected net profits of 2.1 billion RMB, 2.6 billion RMB, and 2.8 billion RMB respectively [4]. - The estimated EPS for 2025 is 2.07 RMB, with a projected P/E ratio of 13x for 2025, leading to a target price of 26.91 RMB [4]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is expected to leverage its cost advantages and competitive pricing to expand its market share in the U.S. despite tariff challenges [1][3]. - The company’s new factory in Morocco is projected to contribute significantly to capacity expansion by 2025 [3].