BAOFENG ENERGY(600989) 申万宏源证券·2025-04-24 02:43Investment Rating - The investment rating for Baofeng Energy is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance met expectations, with total revenue of 10.77 billion yuan (YoY +30.92%, QoQ +23.68%) and net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.44 billion yuan (YoY +71.49%, QoQ +35.31%) [6] - The Inner Mongolia project is gradually ramping up production, and the olefin price spread continues to recover, leading to a steady increase in quarterly profits [6] - The Inner Mongolia Phase I project, with a capacity of 3 million tons of coal-to-olefins, is expected to fully ramp up by Q2 2025, becoming a major growth driver for the company [6] - The Xinjiang project has received environmental and safety assessments, opening up long-term growth opportunities for the company [6] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 13.52 billion, 15.05 billion, and 16.04 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 9, 8, and 7 times [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 55.37 billion yuan, with a YoY growth rate of 67.9% [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is projected at 13.52 billion yuan, with a YoY growth rate of 113.4% [5] - Earnings per share for 2025 is estimated at 1.84 yuan [5] - Gross margin for 2025 is expected to be 36.0% [5] - Return on equity (ROE) for 2025 is projected at 24.6% [5]