UTour (002707) 华西证券·2025-04-24 02:52Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2] Core Views - The company, Zhongxin Tourism, is one of the first 5A-level international travel agencies in China, focusing on outbound tourism business through a wholesale and retail integrated approach [1][14] - The inbound tourism industry is experiencing growth driven by policy support, with Zhongxin Tourism well-positioned to benefit from this trend [1][54] - The outbound tourism market is expected to see reduced restrictions and increased demand, particularly from the middle-aged and elderly demographics, which presents significant growth opportunities for Zhongxin Tourism [2][54] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Zhongxin Tourism is a leading international travel agency in China, with nearly 2000 stores nationwide covering about 20 provinces and offering services in over 200 countries and regions [1][14] - The company employs a multi-channel marketing strategy that combines online and offline sales [1][14] Inbound Tourism - The inbound tourism sector is entering a growth phase due to various policy initiatives, including visa exemptions and increased entry points [54] - The demand for inbound tourism is currently greater than supply, indicating significant recovery potential [1][54] Outbound Tourism - The outbound tourism market is expected to grow as restrictions ease and demand from younger and middle-aged travelers increases [2][54] - The company is positioned to benefit from the rising trend in outbound tourism, particularly among the elderly who prefer group travel [2][54] Retail Business - The retail segment of Zhongxin Tourism is expanding with minimal resistance, and the growth of retail stores is expected to enhance brand recognition and revenue [3][6] - As of mid-2024, the number of retail stores has surpassed 2000, showing significant growth from 751 stores at the end of 2019 [3][6] Wholesale Business - The wholesale business is expected to grow due to the synergy with retail operations and the overall recovery of the outbound tourism market [7] - The company is diversifying its wholesale offerings to include study abroad, immigration, and health services, which are anticipated to drive revenue growth [7] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 65.17 billion, 104.76 billion, and 132.05 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 97.6%, 60.7%, and 26.0% [8][10] - The expected net profit for the same years is 1.14 billion, 2.45 billion, and 3.75 billion yuan, with corresponding earnings per share of 0.12, 0.25, and 0.38 yuan [8][10]