航运衍生品数据日报-20250424

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Due to partial ship - schedule delays, supply contracted, cargo volume didn't slump as macro - expected, the target index soared, and the April contract led the rise. The 06 contract in the current shipping market will gradually return to the real - world logic, showing a weak reality. The 08 contract has better opportunities than the 06. There is still a chance to go long on the 08 contract as the safety margin is gradually sufficient, it has a two - month peak - season extension compared to June, and the Western demand for high - price goods during the peak season is less sensitive [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Derivatives Data - Freight Rate Index: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is currently at 1370, down 1.77% from the previous value. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) data is incomplete. SCFI - US West is at 2103, down 4.50%; SCFIS - US West is at 1368, down 13.80%; SCFI - US East is at 3251, up 0.77%; SCFI - Northwest Europe is at 1316, down 2.95%; SCFIS - Northwest Europe is at 1508, up 7.56%; SCFI - Mediterranean is at 2161, up 0.79% [5]. - Forward Contracts: For forward contracts like EC2506, EC2508, etc., their values, previous values, and percentage changes are provided. For example, EC2506 is currently at 1509.1, up 3.59% from the previous value. The 06 contract will show a weak reality, while the 08 contract has more opportunities [5][9]. - Positions: The current and previous positions of forward contracts are given, along with the changes. For example, the EC2506 position is currently 39092, an increase of 401 from the previous value [5]. - Monthly Spreads: The current and previous monthly spreads (e.g., 4 - 6, 6 - 8) and their changes are presented. For example, the 4 - 6 monthly spread is currently - 65.3, a decrease of 52.0 from the previous value [5]. 3.2 Spot Freight Rates - May Price Increase: After the price - increase attempts in March and April failed, the small price - increase in late April by major airlines had low synergy. It is expected that the effect will be poor. The price in early May is expected to be between 2000 - 2500 US dollars, but the large amount of available capacity in late May is not conducive to price development [8]. - April Average Price: The overall price in late April is around 2000 US dollars [8]. 3.3 Market News and Expectations - Tariff News: There are discussions in the US government about reducing tariffs on China to around 50% - 65%, and considering a tiered tariff method. The market expects that US - bound shipping demand will decline due to tariff impacts, and some ships have been transferred to European routes [6][9]. - Eurozone Manufacturing PMI: The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in April is 48.7, higher than the expected 47.5 [7].