SUNSTONE(603612) 国信证券·2025-04-24 03:46Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [3][5][20] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 13.75 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 10.19%, but achieved a net profit of 272 million yuan, marking a return to profitability [1][9] - The significant recovery in operating performance in Q1 2025 is attributed to the rapid rebound in prices of petroleum coke and prebaked anodes, which boosted the unit profit of prebaked anodes [1][9] - The company is expected to benefit from the domestic "North Aluminum South Move" strategy, leading to rapid capacity expansion and a gradual start in overseas market layout [3][20] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 18.594 billion, 20.513 billion, and 23.938 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 35.2%, 10.3%, and 16.7% respectively [3][20] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 1.045 billion, 1.204 billion, and 1.446 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 283.5%, 15.2%, and 20.2% respectively [3][20] Production Capacity and Sales Data - In 2024, the company added 640,000 tons of prebaked anode capacity, bringing the total capacity to 3.46 million tons [2][11] - The total production of prebaked anodes in 2024 is expected to be 3.2645 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.25%, with sales of 3.3169 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.35% [2][11] Project Development - New project developments are progressing steadily, including a 600,000-ton prebaked anode project in Guangxi and a 320,000-ton project in Jiangsu, both expected to be operational by the end of 2025 [2][19] - The company is also making progress on a joint venture project with Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) and has signed a sales framework agreement with three subsidiaries of Alcoa in the U.S. for the supply of approximately 240,000 tons of prebaked anodes in 2025 [2][19]