摩根士丹利：中国股票策略-关税战会缓和吗？

Investment Rating - The report suggests a balanced approach to investment, particularly favoring large-cap internet/tech, consumer, and healthcare sectors in a potential tariff de-escalation scenario [2][4]. Core Insights - Market sentiment has improved significantly due to comments from US officials indicating a potential reduction in tariffs against China, leading to a notable rise in indices such as the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index by 3.7% and Hang Seng indices by approximately 2.4% and 3.1% [3][4]. - In the event of tariff de-escalation, Chinese equities are expected to benefit, particularly offshore markets outperforming onshore A-shares, with large-cap internet/tech, consumer, and healthcare sectors being the most positively impacted [4][5]. - Despite the positive market reaction, the report emphasizes the need for patience and a cautious approach, as there is currently no solid evidence of effective bilateral negotiations taking place [5]. Summary by Sections Market Sentiment - Significant improvement in market sentiment following optimistic comments from US officials regarding tariffs [3]. - Positive earnings revision stabilization trend anticipated if tariffs are reduced, alleviating investor concerns [4]. Sector Performance - Large-cap internet/tech, consumer, and healthcare sectors are best positioned to benefit from tariff de-escalation [4]. - Offshore equities expected to outperform onshore A-shares in a de-escalation scenario [4]. Strategic Positioning - Investors are advised to maintain a balanced approach, holding high-quality large-cap internet names and blue-chip consumer stocks while also keeping some defensiveness in their portfolios [5][8].