摩根士丹利：中国材料行业2025年第二季度展望-在不确定性中寻找确定性

Investment Rating - The industry view is rated as Attractive, with a preference for gold, cement, building materials, and steel for 2Q25 [7]. Core Insights - Demand in the materials sector showed signs of recovery in 1Q25, but the outlook for 2Q25 is uncertain due to tariff concerns [2]. - The report anticipates that metals-related stocks may outperform in 2H25 as further stimulus is expected [1][6]. - The impact of tariffs is projected to lower China's 2025 real GDP forecast by 30 basis points to 4.2% [2][18]. Summary by Sections Gold - Gold is identified as the top pick within commodities, supported by ongoing central bank buying and rising ETF inflows [3]. - Lower Treasury yields are expected to enhance gold's macro backdrop [3]. Cement and Steel - Cement supply-side controls were announced in November 2024, leading to a focus on profitability rather than price wars [4]. - A production cut of 30 million tons and an export cut of 15-20 million tons for steel is anticipated in 2025 [4]. Metals - In 2H25, copper and aluminum are expected to outperform due to continued demand from grid and EV-related infrastructure [5]. - The report notes that aluminum will benefit from margin expansion amid limited supply increases [5]. Tariff Impact - The cumulative US tariffs are expected to have a more significant growth drag compared to the 2018-19 period, with a projected weighted average tariff hike on China reaching 34% by year-end [17]. - The tariff shocks are anticipated to affect both trade channels and domestic demand, contributing to a GDP growth reduction of 90 basis points [18].