温氏股份（300498）：业绩符合预期，头均盈利领先

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 24.33 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.37%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2 billion yuan, up 261.9% year-on-year [1] - The average profit per head for pigs is estimated at 308 yuan, maintaining an industry-leading level due to decreasing costs [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2 yuan per 10 shares for 2024, totaling 1.32 billion yuan, with a combined cash dividend and share buyback amounting to 2.92 billion yuan for 2024 [2] Financial Performance - The company sold 8.174 million pigs in Q1 2025, a 13.8% increase year-on-year, with an average weight of 123 kg and an average price of 15.2 yuan/kg [1] - The total revenue for 2025 is projected to be 100.236 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.4% [3] - The net profit for 2025 is expected to be 9.405 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [3] Cost and Profitability - The comprehensive cost of pig farming decreased to an estimated 12.7 yuan/kg in Q1 2025 [1] - The company sold 282 million chickens in Q1 2025, with an average price of 10.9 yuan/kg, leading to an estimated loss of 0.6 yuan per chicken due to costs [1] Future Earnings Forecast - The forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 9.405 billion yuan, 5.823 billion yuan, and 9.699 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 1.9%, -38.1%, and 66.6% [2][3]