Asia-Potash(000893) 国信证券·2025-04-24 09:35Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][30] Core Views - The potassium fertilizer industry is experiencing a recovery, with accelerated construction of new production capacity [1][3] - In 2024, the company is expected to achieve a revenue of 35.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.0% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 9.5 billion yuan, down 23.1% year-on-year [1][10] - The company benefits from a reduction in export tariffs in Laos, which will lower costs and enhance profitability [3][29] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company reported a net profit of 3.8 billion yuan, exceeding expectations, with a revenue of 12.1 billion yuan, up 91.5% year-on-year [2][20] - The average selling price of potassium chloride in Q1 2025 was 2,255 yuan per ton, an increase of 9.7% year-on-year [2][20] - The company’s potassium chloride production in 2024 is projected to be 1.8154 million tons, an increase of 10.2% year-on-year, with sales of 1.7415 million tons, up 8.4% year-on-year [1][10] Tax Policy and Capacity Expansion - The Laos tax incentive policy will reduce the export tax rate from 7% to 1.5% and the corporate income tax rate from 35% to 20% from 2024 to 2028 [3][29] - The company aims to achieve a production capacity of 5 million tons of potassium fertilizer per year as part of its strategic direction to become a world-class supplier [3][29] Earnings Forecast - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised to 18.6 billion yuan and 27.3 billion yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 32.9 billion yuan [4][29] - Corresponding EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 2.01 yuan, 2.94 yuan, and 3.54 yuan, with PE ratios of 13.4, 9.2, and 7.6, respectively [4][29]