CGN POWER(003816) 银河证券·2025-04-24 11:53Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for China General Nuclear Power Corporation (CGN) [3][5]. Core Views - Short-term fluctuations do not alter the long-term growth certainty of CGN, with expectations of stable revenue and profit growth despite recent challenges [5]. - The company reported a revenue of 20.028 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.41%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.026 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.07% [5]. - The decline in profit is attributed to lower market electricity prices and increased operating costs, particularly due to the commissioning of new units and rising fuel costs [5]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecasts: - 2024A: 86,804.41 million yuan - 2025E: 86,781.61 million yuan - 2026E: 92,257.27 million yuan - 2027E: 99,473.03 million yuan - Revenue growth rates are projected at 5.16% for 2024, -0.03% for 2025, 6.31% for 2026, and 7.82% for 2027 [2][7]. - Net Profit Forecasts: - 2024A: 10,813.87 million yuan - 2025E: 10,439.88 million yuan - 2026E: 11,088.06 million yuan - 2027E: 12,221.10 million yuan - Profit growth rates are expected to be 0.83% for 2024, -3.46% for 2025, 6.21% for 2026, and 10.22% for 2027 [2][7]. - Key Financial Ratios: - Gross margin is projected to decline from 34.03% in 2024 to 31.80% in 2027 [2][7]. - The Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 16.72 in 2024 to 14.79 in 2027 [2][7]. Operational Insights - The company achieved a power generation of 60.174 billion kWh in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.25%, with contributions from new units offsetting some operational challenges [5]. - The approval of convertible bonds is expected to enhance project construction, with significant growth potential in the long term [5].