LB Group(002601) 国信证券·2025-04-24 12:01Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][31] Core Views - The company is expected to see a decline in net profit for 2024, with a forecasted revenue of 27.51 billion yuan (up 2.8% year-on-year) and a net profit of 2.17 billion yuan (down 32.8% year-on-year). However, in the first quarter of 2025, the company is projected to turn a profit with a net profit of 690 million yuan (down 27.9% year-on-year, but up from a loss) [10][4] - The titanium dioxide market is experiencing increased supply, with domestic production expected to reach 4.67 million tons in 2024 (up 17% year-on-year). The average price for titanium dioxide is forecasted to decline, with an average of 15,526 yuan per ton in 2024 (down 2% year-on-year) [2][19] - The company is actively developing key projects to expand titanium concentrate production capacity, which is expected to support future growth despite current market pressures [3][20] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company is projected to have a revenue of 27.51 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.17 billion yuan, with a significant drop in net profit attributed to lower iron concentrate prices and underperformance in the new energy sector [10][4] - The first quarter of 2025 shows a revenue of 7.05 billion yuan (down 3.2% year-on-year, up 6.1% quarter-on-quarter) and a net profit of 690 million yuan (down 27.9% year-on-year, but turning profitable quarter-on-quarter) [10][4] Market Dynamics - The company’s titanium dioxide sales volume is expected to grow to 1.2545 million tons in 2024 (up 8% year-on-year), with international sales accounting for 57% of total sales [2][19] - The average price of titanium concentrate is projected to be 2,180 yuan per ton in 2024 (up 3% year-on-year), while iron ore prices are expected to decline [3][20] Investment Recommendations - The company maintains a strong position in the titanium dioxide industry, with an increasing self-sufficiency rate in titanium concentrate. However, increased competition and weak demand in some regions due to macroeconomic factors have led to a downward revision of net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 [4][31] - The revised net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are 3.006 billion yuan and 3.894 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.26 yuan and 1.63 yuan [4][31]