SUNSTONE(603612) 光大证券·2025-04-24 13:16Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [6]. Core Views - The company has shown a recovery in profitability, with a return to profit in 2024 and a significant increase in revenue and net profit in Q1 2025 [1][2]. - The price of prebaked anodes has increased, contributing to improved profitability in early 2025, with a notable rise in gross margin [2][4]. - The company is expanding its production capacity, with several projects underway aimed at increasing output in the coming years [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 137.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 10% year-on-year, but achieved a net profit of 2.7 billion yuan, marking a return to profitability [1]. - For Q1 2025, revenue reached 37.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.5%, with a net profit of 2.4 billion yuan [1]. Price Trends and Margins - The average price of prebaked anodes decreased throughout 2024 but showed signs of stabilization, leading to a gross margin of 9.8%, an increase of 8.4 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - In Q1 2025, the average price of prebaked anodes rose to 5,179 yuan per ton, a 14% year-on-year increase, contributing to a gross margin of 17.03% [2]. Production Capacity Expansion - The company plans to advance several projects, including a 600,000-ton prebaked anode project in Guangxi and a 320,000-ton project in Jiangsu, aiming for completion by mid-2026 [3]. - The target for prebaked anode sales in 2025 is set at 3.5 million tons, with a production goal of 3.4 million tons [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profit for 2025 and 2026 is 10.97 billion yuan and 12.82 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting significant growth compared to previous estimates [4]. - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 8, 7, and 6, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation relative to earnings growth [4].