浙商证券浙商早知道-20250425

Market Overview - On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index closed flat compared to the previous day, while the CSI 300 fell by 0.1%, the STAR Market 50 dropped by 0.9%, the CSI 1000 decreased by 1.1%, and the ChiNext Index declined by 0.7%. The Hang Seng Index also fell by 0.7% [4]. - The best-performing sectors on Thursday were Beauty Care (+1.6%), Banking (+1.2%), Utilities (+1.1%), Coal (+0.6%), and Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery (+0.5%). The worst-performing sectors included Computer (-2.4%), Communication (-2.1%), Electronics (-1.5%), Media (-1.4%), and Machinery Equipment (-1.3%) [4]. - The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets on Thursday was 1,109 billion yuan, with a net inflow of southbound funds amounting to 3.39 billion HKD [4]. Important Insights - In the bond market, the short-term performance of TS is expected to continue to lag behind T and TL due to weak expectations for central bank interest rate cuts and high funding costs. The current market strategies of positive spreads and hedging are likely to exacerbate the weakness of TS [5]. - The main contract for TS is shifting from TS2506 to TS2509, with TS2506 expected to perform weaker than TS2509. The transition of the most liquid bond from 240024 to 250006 is also a contributing factor to the weak performance of TS2506 [5]. - In the credit bond market, the main contributors to new non-bank purchases are bond funds and money market funds, driven by the current interest rate fluctuations and a strong trend of institutional credit bond accumulation in the first half of the year [6]. Trade Policy Insights - The U.S. tariff negotiations may shift from high-pressure threats to a more softened approach, with the Trump administration having an inherent motivation to reach a trade agreement. The likelihood of escalation or resolution in U.S.-China trade tensions remains limited, with potential signals for negotiations expected in the first half of 2025 [7].