中科三环（000970）：售价下跌拖累业绩表现，稀土涨价或受益

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 was 1.461 billion RMB, showing a quarter-on-quarter decline of 17.43% and a year-on-year decline of 11.58%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 0.13 billion RMB, reflecting a significant quarter-on-quarter drop of 75.05% but a year-on-year turnaround from a loss [2] - The decline in performance is attributed to falling prices, with Q1 2025 revenue, gross profit, and gross margin decreasing by 17.41%, 36.18%, and 2.56 percentage points, respectively. The overall cost of rare earth materials increased, leading to a significant drop in gross margin [3] - The company is expected to benefit from rising rare earth prices due to export controls and a contraction in overseas mining supply. The demand for rare earths is anticipated to improve, particularly in the fields of humanoid robots and low-altitude economies [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 1.461 billion RMB, with a gross profit of 0.127 billion RMB and a gross margin of 8.69% [2][3] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio improved to 25.70%, with a decrease in operating expenses by 30.92% year-on-year to 0.105 billion RMB [3] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 6.548 billion RMB, 6.802 billion RMB, and 7.151 billion RMB, respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 0.93 billion RMB, 1.74 billion RMB, and 1.96 billion RMB for the same period [5] Market Outlook - The report highlights a favorable market environment for rare earths, with expected demand growth driven by technological advancements and supply constraints. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on these trends due to its significant use of heavy rare earths in its product structure [4]