STL(002648) 华泰证券·2025-04-25 02:05Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of RMB 22.80 [6][7]. Core Views - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of RMB 12.3 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 40% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 1.57 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 53% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 34% [1]. - The company is facing some pressure on profitability due to high ethane costs impacting the C2 segment, while the C3 segment has shown some recovery with a 7% increase in the propylene-propane price spread [2]. - The company is advancing its high-end new materials project, which is expected to be completed by the end of 2025 and officially start production in early 2026, indicating potential for long-term growth [3]. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, now expecting net profits of RMB 6.4 billion, RMB 8.3 billion, and RMB 9.2 billion respectively, which is a downward revision of 13%, 4%, and 4% from previous estimates [4]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 1.90, RMB 2.47, and RMB 2.74 respectively [4]. - The target price is based on a 12x price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2025, reflecting a slight increase from the previous 11x PE [4].