Hoshine Silicon(603260) 开源证券·2025-04-25 02:14Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][4][11] Core Views - The company is experiencing pressure on overall performance due to increased product volume but decreased prices in 2024. The revenue for 2024 is projected at 26,692 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.41%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1,740 million yuan, a decrease of 33.64% year-on-year [4][5] - The company anticipates gradual recovery in profitability within the silicon industry chain, maintaining a "Buy" rating despite downward adjustments in profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [4][5] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 266.92 billion yuan, with a net profit of 17.40 billion yuan, reflecting a significant decline in profitability [4][5] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 52.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.47%, and a net profit of 2.60 billion yuan, down 50.81% year-on-year [4][5] - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2,005 million yuan, 3,097 million yuan, and 4,004 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.70, 2.62, and 3.39 yuan [4][5][6] Production and Pricing Insights - In 2024, the production of industrial silicon and organic silicon reached 1,871,000 tons and 1,621,000 tons respectively, with year-on-year increases of 38% and 19%. However, the prices for these products have seen a decline [5] - The average selling prices for industrial silicon and organic silicon in 2024 were 11,175 yuan/ton and 12,405 yuan/ton, reflecting year-on-year decreases of 16.36% and 4.30% respectively [5] Cost and Margin Analysis - The cost of raw materials has decreased, with procurement prices for key inputs like petroleum coke and coal dropping significantly in 2024 [5] - The gross margin for 2024 is projected at 20.5%, with a net margin of 6.5%, indicating a challenging profitability environment [6][8]