CHOW TAI FOOK(01929) 国盛证券·2025-04-25 02:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chow Tai Fook (01929.HK) [3][6] Core Views - The company's retail sales decline continues to narrow, with a 11.6% year-on-year decrease in RSV for FY2025Q4, showing improvement compared to FY2025Q3 [1][3] - The company is expected to experience a high double-digit revenue decline for FY2025, with a projected net profit decrease of 2.4% to HKD 6.342 billion [3][5] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - For FY2025Q4, the mainland RSV decreased by 10.4%, attributed to macroeconomic fluctuations and high gold prices affecting same-store sales, alongside a continued net store closure strategy [2][3] - In the Hong Kong and Macau regions, RSV fell by 20.7%, with same-store sales down 22.5%, primarily due to changes in consumer behavior and reduced spending by mainland tourists [3][11] Financial Projections - Revenue for FY2025 is expected to decline by 19.3%, with net profit projected at HKD 6.342 billion, reflecting a 2.4% decrease year-on-year [5][14] - The report adjusts net profit forecasts for FY2025-2027 to HKD 6.342 billion, HKD 7.249 billion, and HKD 8.217 billion respectively, with a corresponding FY2025 PE ratio of 15 times [3][5] Store Operations - The company closed 395 stores in mainland China during FY2025Q4, focusing on improving operational efficiency and profitability [11][3] - As of March 2025, Chow Tai Fook operates 6,423 stores globally, with a strategy to optimize store performance by closing underperforming locations while opening new, higher-efficiency stores [11][3]