花旗：How Not To Win A Trade War-日本如何玩这个游戏

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report discusses the trade war initiated by the US, emphasizing that it was seen as winnable with minimal economic damage under the right conditions and strategy [2][3] - It highlights the failure of the Trump administration to maintain a consistent strategy during the trade negotiations, particularly after backing down from "reciprocal tariffs" [2][3] - The report analyzes the ongoing trade negotiations between the US and Japan, questioning the likelihood of reaching a trade deal and the implications of various outcomes [4][5] Summary by Sections Trade War Dynamics - The report identifies five main objectives of the Trump administration regarding the trade war, including minimizing the trade deficit and raising tariffs [8] - It notes that the US trade deficit with Japan is significant, ranking eighth among trading partners, while bilateral trade is the fifth largest [12] Potential Outcomes of Trade Negotiations - If a trade deal is reached, the US would likely lose revenue from the current 10% tariff but would require Japan to purchase an additional $62 billion in goods, resulting in a net benefit of$54 billion for the US and a net loss of $77 billion for Japan [16][17] - In a scenario where no deal is reached but talks continue, a 30$6 billion for the US and $44 billion for Japan [18][19] - If negotiations collapse, a 60$34 billion and Japan losing $89 billion [20][21] Game Theory Analysis - The report employs Game Theory to analyze the trade negotiations, presenting a matrix that outlines potential payoffs for both the US and Japan under different scenarios [22][24] - It concludes that it is optimal for the US to pursue a deal that eliminates the trade deficit, while Japan would prefer to maintain the status quo to minimize its losses [31][32] - The Nash Equilibrium is identified at a point where the US offers a deal to eliminate the trade deficit, and Japan rejects it, provided the US does not walk away from negotiations [33][34] Strategic Considerations - The report suggests that both sides may benefit from prolonging negotiations without reaching a successful conclusion [35] - It discusses the possibility of Japan adopting a stronger negotiating position, potentially leading to a scenario where the US would accept a deal that favors Japan significantly [42][49] - The report indicates that the US may need to explore alternative strategies, such as currency devaluation, to achieve its goal of eliminating the trade deficit [39] Market Implications - Investors are advised to prepare for a potential retest of market lows within a 90-day window following the negotiations [56] - The report notes that the performance of the NKY index relative to the SPX could influence Japan's willingness to engage in stronger negotiation tactics [57]