好未来（TAL）：4季度品牌建设投放加大；2026 财年盈利能力提升是首要目标

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for TAL Education Group (TAL US) with a target price of $13.30, indicating a potential upside of 48.9$8.93 [4][15]. Core Insights - The report highlights that TAL Education is focusing on enhancing its profitability in the fiscal year 2026, with a projected revenue growth of 30%, reaching approximately $2.917 billion [2][8]. - The company is expected to benefit from strong demand in quality education training and sales of learning devices, with a notable retention rate of 80$1.490 billion - 2025: $2.250 billion - 2026E:$2.917 billion - 2027E: $3.418 billion - 2028E:$3.864 billion - Year-on-year growth rates are expected to be 46.2% for 2024, 51.0% for 2025, and 29.6% for 2026 [3][16]. - Net profit estimates are projected to increase significantly, with figures of $85 million for 2024,$150 million for 2025, and $307 million for 2026 [3][16]. - The report indicates a significant improvement in earnings per share (EPS), with projections of$0.14 for 2024, $0.24 for 2025, and$0.51 for 2026 [3][16]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a 52-week high of $14.79 and a low of$7.42, with a current market capitalization of approximately $4.09 billion [6][15]. - The stock has experienced a year-to-date decline of 10.88% [6]. Strategic Focus - TAL Education is committed to expanding its product offerings and enhancing its brand influence through technology and content integration, including the launch of new courses and AI-assisted features [8][9]. - The company aims to diversify its channels and adapt to different business cycles to ensure sustained growth [8].