Hoshine Silicon(603260) 开源证券·2025-04-25 03:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][4][11] Core Views - The company is experiencing pressure on overall performance due to increased product volume but decreased prices in 2024. The revenue for 2024 is projected at 26,692 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.41%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1,740 million yuan, a decrease of 33.64% year-on-year [4][5] - The company anticipates gradual recovery in profitability within the silicon industry chain, maintaining a "Buy" rating despite downward adjustments in profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [4][5] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 26,692 million yuan, with a net profit of 1,740 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 33.64%. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a net profit of 286 million yuan, down 34.73% year-on-year and 39.97% quarter-on-quarter [4][5] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 5,228 million yuan, a decrease of 3.47% year-on-year and 17.30% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 260 million yuan, down 50.81% year-on-year and 9.21% quarter-on-quarter [4][5] - The company forecasts net profits of 2,005 million yuan in 2025, 3,097 million yuan in 2026, and 4,004 million yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS of 1.70, 2.62, and 3.39 yuan respectively [4][5] Product and Price Trends - In 2024, the production of industrial silicon and organic silicon reached 1,871,000 tons and 1,621,000 tons, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 38% and 19%. Sales volumes were 1,230,000 tons and 949,000 tons, reflecting year-on-year increases of 21% and 11% [5] - The average prices for industrial silicon, silicone rubber, silicone oil, and cyclic siloxane in 2024 were 11,175 yuan, 12,405 yuan, 10,013 yuan, and 13,000 yuan per ton, showing year-on-year changes of -16.36%, -4.30%, +7.18%, and -2.23% respectively [5] - In Q1 2025, the average prices for these products further declined, with industrial silicon at 9,342 yuan per ton, down 29.80% year-on-year [5] Cost and Raw Material Trends - The procurement prices for key raw materials in 2024 showed significant decreases, with prices for ore, petroleum coke, and coal down by 4.24%, 44.27%, and 20.68% respectively [5] - The company expects that the current prices of industrial silicon and organic silicon are at the bottom of the cycle, with limited downward price pressure due to strong cost support [5]