Panda Dairy (300898) 华鑫证券·2025-04-25 05:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [2][8] Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure due to rising costs, with revenue and net profit showing declines in Q1 2025 [6] - The company is expected to benefit from new product launches, particularly in the coconut product segment, which has shown significant growth [7] - The earnings forecast for 2025-2027 indicates a gradual recovery in profitability, with projected EPS of 0.89, 0.99, and 1.13 yuan respectively [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, total revenue and net profit were 1.70 million yuan and 0.14 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year declines of 8.3% and 48.8% respectively [6] - The gross margin and net margin were 25% and 8%, down 3.8 and 6.9 percentage points year-on-year [6] - Operating cash flow remained stable, but sales collections decreased by 16.8% year-on-year [6] Product Performance - Excluding trading business, overall revenue remained flat year-on-year, with strong performance in the core business [7] - The coconut product segment saw a near doubling in growth, driven by the recovery of major clients and the acquisition of new customers [7] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to consolidate its core business while developing a second growth curve through improved retail channel construction [8] - The projected main revenue for 2025 is 783 million yuan, with a growth rate of 2.4% [11] - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is 110 million yuan, with a growth rate of 7.1% [11]