COSMOS(300856) 开源证券·2025-04-25 05:32Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][15] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure due to downstream inventory destocking and price reductions, with expectations for demand recovery and new product ramp-up [1][7] - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.2%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 560 million yuan, down 23.3% year-on-year [7][10] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 410 million, 526 million, and 637 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -27.2%, +28.3%, and +21.2% [7][10] Financial Summary - The current stock price is 19.88 yuan, with a market capitalization of 6.755 billion yuan [3] - The company's revenue and net profit projections for 2025 and 2026 are 2.15 billion and 2.58 billion yuan, and 410 million and 526 million yuan respectively [10][12] - The gross margin for 2024 is 44.4%, down 4.43 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin is 24.65%, down 5.92 percentage points year-on-year [9][10] Business Performance - The company's sunscreen product shipments have declined due to slowing market demand and customer inventory digestion, with some product prices also decreasing [7][8] - The revenue from cosmetic active ingredients and synthetic fragrances in 2024 is 1.9 billion and 350 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -8.1% and +14.2% respectively [8] - The company is expanding its product lines and steadily progressing with new products, including a new high-end personal care product project with an annual capacity of 2,600 tons [9][10]