Kaiwen Education(002659) 民生证券·2025-04-25 06:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [5][10]. Core Views - The company is experiencing a turning point in operations, with a steady increase in student enrollment and revenue growth, leading to a projected profitability turnaround [1][2]. - The "dual-track" system is expected to significantly enhance student capacity and enrollment at the Chaoyang Kevin school, with a projected increase in student numbers from 380 in 2023 to 3000 in the future [2]. - The company is actively developing vocational education and government-enterprise training programs, establishing strategic partnerships with major tech firms, which is anticipated to drive future growth [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 320 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.92%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -37 million yuan. For Q1 2025, revenue was 91 million yuan, up 17.68%, with a net profit of 0.47 million yuan, marking a 113.24% increase [1][4]. - The gross profit margin improved to 27.45% in 2024 and is expected to rise to 32.40% in Q1 2025, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [1]. - The company forecasts revenues of 403 million yuan, 476 million yuan, and 547 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 43 million yuan, 94 million yuan, and 122 million yuan [4][8]. Financial Ratios and Projections - The company has a low debt ratio of 28.47% as of March 2025, with a good cash flow position, showing positive operating cash flows from 2022 to 2024 [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.07 yuan in 2025, 0.16 yuan in 2026, and 0.20 yuan in 2027, with dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 64, 29, and 22 respectively [4][8]. - The company aims to optimize its asset structure and improve asset utilization, which is expected to enhance performance flexibility [3].