COSMOS(300856) 开源证券·2025-04-25 06:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][15] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure due to downstream inventory destocking and price reductions, with expectations for demand recovery and new product ramp-up in the future [1][7] - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.2%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 560 million yuan, down 23.3% year-on-year [7][10] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 410 million, 526 million, and 637 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -27.2%, +28.3%, and +21.2% [7][10] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at 2.15 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 5.5% [10] - The gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 36.8%, down from 44.4% in 2023 [10] - The net profit margin is projected to decrease to 19.1% in 2025 from 24.7% in 2024 [10] Business Segments - Revenue from cosmetic active ingredients and their raw materials is expected to be 1.9 billion yuan in 2024, down 8.1% year-on-year, while synthetic fragrance revenue is projected at 350 million yuan, up 14.2% year-on-year [8] - The domestic market shows a bright performance, with domestic revenue increasing by 22.87% year-on-year, while overseas revenue is expected to decline by 8.3% [8] Capacity and Expansion - The company has made progress in expanding its product lines, with new production lines for high-end personal care products and sunscreen series products under construction [9][10] - The capacity utilization rates for cosmetic active ingredients and synthetic fragrances are 54.98% and 89.22% respectively in 2024 [8] Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 17.3, 13.5, and 11.1 respectively [10] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratios for the same years are expected to be 2.3, 2.1, and 1.9 [10]