洽洽食品（002557）：公司信息更新报告：2025Q1收入略有下滑，成本上涨致盈利承压

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's revenue and profit in Q1 2025 were slightly below expectations, with revenue declining by 13.8% year-on-year and net profit down by 67.9% year-on-year due to rising costs [4][5] - The company reported a revenue of 7.131 billion yuan and a net profit of 849 million yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.8% and 5.8% respectively [4] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 778 million yuan, 907 million yuan, and 1.008 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year change of -8.5%, +16.6%, and +11.2% respectively [4] Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company's snack revenue grew by 4.8% year-on-year, with specific categories like seeds and nuts increasing by 2.6% and 9.7% respectively [5] - The decline in Q1 2025 revenue is attributed to a high base from the previous year and early inventory buildup for the Spring Festival [5] - The gross margin for 2024 improved to 28.78%, while the gross margin for Q1 2025 decreased to 19.5% due to rising sunflower seed prices [6] Cost and Expense Management - The company experienced an increase in raw material prices, which pressured profitability in Q1 2025 [6] - The expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and financial costs increased slightly in 2024, with sales expenses rising significantly due to a 27% increase in advertising and promotional costs [6] Growth Potential - The company is actively exploring new product categories and expanding its distribution channels, which is expected to support steady revenue growth [7] - Despite the cost pressures from raw material prices, there is an expectation that costs may ease in the second half of 2025 [7] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The company’s projected revenue for 2025 is 7.639 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.1% [9] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 15.6, 13.4, and 12.0 respectively [9]