商贸零售行业动态点评：金价上行，高股息低估值珠宝板块长期景气度犹存

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the retail trade industry [3] Core Viewpoints - The rise in gold prices driven by risk aversion has led to a high level of activity in the gold market, with a year-on-year growth of 6.9% in gold and jewelry retail sales in Q1 2025, and a significant increase in gold prices by 17.96% [1] - The jewelry sector is expected to recover significantly in Q2 2025 due to a low base effect and rising gold prices, despite a challenging sales environment in 2024 [2] - The report highlights the importance of product innovation and brand strength as key competitive factors for jewelry companies in the long term [2] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The gold jewelry sector experienced a sales decline in 2024 due to rapidly rising gold prices, which increased by 28% for the year, leading to cautious consumer behavior [2] - The first quarter of 2025 showed improvement in sales due to the Spring Festival effect, with a positive trend expected to continue into Q2 as the industry enters a low base phase [2] Company Valuation - The overall valuation of the gold jewelry industry is currently low, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of approximately 13X as of April 23, 2025, for major companies such as Zhou Dasheng, Lao Fengxiang, and others [2] - The dividend yield for leading companies in the sector is strong, with Zhou Dasheng at approximately 7%, Lao Fengxiang at 4%, and others ranging from 4% to 6% [2] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading brands with low valuations and high dividend yields, specifically recommending companies like Lao Fengxiang, Zhou Dasheng, and others [3]