温氏股份（300498）：成本下降显著，24年业绩大增

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market index [8][12]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant improvement in its financial performance, with a notable increase in revenue and a return to profitability in 2024. The revenue for 2024 reached 104.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 16.64%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 9.23 billion yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [5][6]. - The company benefits from a dual business model in pig and chicken farming, which provides resilience against industry cycles. The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 1.12 yuan, 1.66 yuan, and 2.35 yuan respectively, reflecting strong growth potential [8][10]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 16.87 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 112.3 billion yuan and a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12.12 [4]. - The company has a total share capital of 6.654 billion shares, with 5.235 billion shares in circulation [4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's pig farming segment generated revenue of 64.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.71%. The average selling price of live pigs was 16.71 yuan/kg, up 12.83% from the previous year [6]. - The chicken farming segment reported revenue of 35.72 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decline of 2.58%. Despite lower prices, the segment remained profitable due to reduced costs [7]. - The company's debt-to-asset ratio improved to 53.14% in 2024, down 8.27 percentage points from the previous period, indicating better financial stability [7]. Future Projections - The company aims to increase its pig output to between 33 million and 35 million heads in 2025, reflecting a commitment to growth in production capacity [6]. - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 102.41 billion yuan, 110.49 billion yuan, and 133.81 billion yuan respectively, with expected growth rates of -2.4%, 7.89%, and 21.11% [10][11].