CHOW TAI FOOK(01929) 招商证券·2025-04-25 07:33Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Chow Tai Fook [4] Core Views - The overall retail value for FY25Q4 decreased by 11.6% year-on-year, with a 10.4% decline in mainland China retail value. Same-store sales in mainland China dropped by 13.2%, with specific declines in jewelry and gold products [1][7] - The company has seen a narrowing decline in retail values, with notable performance from the "Chuanfu" and "Palace Museum" series, achieving sales of 4 billion HKD each for the fiscal year [1][7] - The company is focusing on channel optimization and improving profitability, with a total of 6,423 stores at the end of FY25, having closed 892 stores during the year [1][7] Financial Data and Valuation - Projected total revenue for FY2025 is 90.375 billion HKD, with a year-on-year decline of 17%. Expected net profit for FY2025 is 5.547 billion HKD, reflecting a 15% decrease [3][11] - The current market capitalization is 90 billion HKD, with a PE ratio of 15X for FY26 [4][12] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is reported at 25.6% [4] Store Performance - Same-store sales in mainland China for FY25Q4 saw a decline of 13.2%, with a notable 22.5% drop in Hong Kong and Macau [1][7] - The company has opened new fashion stores in Shanghai and Wuhan, which have performed above average in their initial months [1][7] Product Performance - Retail value for jewelry and platinum products in mainland China increased by 2.4% year-on-year, while gold product sales saw a decline of 12.3% [1][7] - The proportion of priced products in the gold category increased significantly from 9.4% in FY24Q4 to 25.6% in FY25Q4, supporting the resilience of the group's gross margin [1][7]