ICBC(601398) 东海证券·2025-04-25 07:37Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 821.803 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.52% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 365.863 billion yuan, an increase of 0.51% year-on-year. The total assets at year-end were 48.82 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.23% year-on-year, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.34%, down 1 basis point quarter-on-quarter [4][5] - The net interest margin for the year was 1.42%, a year-on-year decrease of 19 basis points, with the decline further narrowing [5][8] - The company is expected to maintain stable growth in asset scale due to increased government financing and a recovery in personal credit growth [5][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved an operating income of 821.803 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 2.52%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 365.863 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.51% year-on-year. The total assets reached 48.82 trillion yuan, marking a 9.23% increase year-on-year [4][5] - The non-performing loan ratio stood at 1.34%, a decrease of 1 basis point from the previous quarter, while the non-performing loan coverage ratio was 214.91%, down 5.39 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [4][8] Asset Quality - The overall asset quality remains stable, with the non-performing loan ratio at 1.34%. The company has a good customer base, which supports its asset quality. However, individual loan risks are rising due to increased pressure on household income and employment [5][8] - The company has been cautious in handling risks, and the overall asset quality is expected to remain stable despite individual loan disturbances [8] Profitability Forecast - The forecast for operating income for 2025-2027 is 808.4 billion yuan, 839.1 billion yuan, and 884.5 billion yuan, respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 369.5 billion yuan, 376.7 billion yuan, and 384.7 billion yuan for the same period [7][8] - The estimated net interest margin for 2025 is 1.32%, with a slight decline expected in subsequent years [7][8] Market Position - The company is expected to benefit from a strong customer base and diversified business, allowing it to maintain stable operations in a challenging environment. The government's support for state-owned banks is likely to enhance market confidence [8]