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广汇能源(600256):能源品价格下跌拖累业绩,静待长期产能释放

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy," maintaining the same rating as the previous report [1]. Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 and Q1 2025 has been significantly impacted by the decline in energy prices, particularly coal and natural gas, leading to a substantial decrease in revenue and net profit [3][5]. - Despite the short-term challenges, the company is expected to benefit from the release of long-term production capacity, particularly from the Marang coal mine and strategic partnerships in coal chemical projects [8][9]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 36.441 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 40.72%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.961 billion yuan, down 42.60% [3][10]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 8.902 billion yuan, a decline of 11.34% year-on-year, and a net profit of 694 million yuan, down 14.07% [3][10]. - The company's LNG production in 2024 was approximately 489,600 tons, an increase of 17.58% year-on-year, while LNG sales dropped by 52.95% to approximately 293,100 tons [5][6]. - Coal production in 2024 reached 43.2524 million tons, a significant increase of 64.02% year-on-year, with sales also rising by 52.39% [5][6]. Future Outlook - The Marang coal mine is expected to significantly increase its production capacity in 2025, contributing to the company's long-term growth [8][9]. - The company plans to establish a 15 million tons/year coal quality utilization demonstration project, enhancing its coal consumption capabilities [8][9]. - Strategic partnerships, such as the collaboration with the Naomao Lake East coal mine, are anticipated to expand the company's market capacity and resource utilization [7][8]. Earnings Forecast - The company’s projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.598 billion yuan, 4.239 billion yuan, and 4.691 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.55, 0.65, and 0.71 yuan [9][10].