ICBC(601398) 东海证券·2025-04-25 08:15Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 821.803 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.52% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 365.863 billion yuan, an increase of 0.51% year-on-year. The total assets at year-end were 48.82 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.23% year-on-year, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.34%, down 1 basis point quarter-on-quarter [4][5][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a net interest margin of 1.42%, a year-on-year decrease of 19 basis points, with the decline further narrowing [4][5] - The fourth quarter saw a net interest margin of 1.39%, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 4 basis points and a year-on-year decrease of 5 basis points, indicating a narrowing decline compared to the previous quarter [5][8] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 1.34%, with a coverage ratio of 214.91%, down 5.39 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The overall asset quality is expected to remain stable despite individual loan pressures [5][8] Loan and Deposit Growth - The company experienced a slowdown in general loan growth due to weak demand and hidden debt replacement, while personal credit growth improved significantly compared to the previous year [5][8] - Deposit growth rebounded in Q4, reflecting the positive impact of fiscal efforts on money supply, with a focus on the macro policy's effect on the regularization of deposits [5][8] Fee and Commission Income - The decline in fee and commission income narrowed significantly in Q4, primarily due to improvements in wealth management and private banking businesses, as well as credit card and custody services [5][6][8] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company forecasts revenues of 808.4 billion yuan for 2025, with a net profit of 369.5 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.98% [7][8] - The estimated price-to-earnings ratio for 2025 is 6.98 times, with a price-to-book ratio of 0.66 times based on the closing price on April 24 [7][8]