CHACHA FOOD CO.,LTD(002557) 开源证券·2025-04-25 08:15Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The company's revenue and profit in Q1 2025 were slightly below expectations, with revenue of 1.57 billion and net profit of 80 million, representing a year-on-year decline of 13.8% and 67.9% respectively. This decline is attributed to rising costs and a high base from the previous year [4][5] - The report has adjusted the profit forecast for 2025-2026 downwards due to cost pressures, with projected net profits of 780 million, 910 million, and 1.01 billion for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year changes of -8.5%, +16.6%, and +11.2% respectively [4][5] - Despite the challenges, the company is actively seeking new growth avenues and expanding into new channels, which supports the "Outperform" rating [4] Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company's revenue from leisure snacks grew by 4.8%, with volume and price increases of 1.0% and 3.8% respectively. However, Q1 2025 saw a revenue decline of 13.8%, primarily due to a high base from the previous year and early inventory buildup for the Spring Festival [5] - The company's gross margin for 2024 improved to 28.78%, while the net margin was 11.92%. However, Q1 2025 saw a gross margin decline to 19.5% due to rising sunflower seed prices [6] Cost and Expense Management - The report indicates that the cost of raw materials has increased, impacting profitability in the short term. The sales expense ratio increased due to a 27% rise in advertising and promotional expenses [6] - The company is expected to face continued cost pressures in the first half of 2025, but there is potential for relief in the second half as sunflower seed prices are projected to decline [7] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The financial summary indicates a revenue forecast of 7.639 billion for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 7.1%. The projected net profit for 2025 is 778 million, reflecting a decline of 8.5% [9] - The company's P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 15.6, 13.4, and 12.0 respectively, indicating a potential for valuation improvement over the forecast period [9]