Yunnan Aluminium (000807) 华安证券·2025-04-25 08:15Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 at 62.18 billion, 73.06 billion, and 82.14 billion respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 8, 7, and 6 times [10]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 144.11 billion in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 26.89%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 5.59%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 9.74 billion, down 12.26% year-on-year but up 64.66% quarter-on-quarter. The gross profit margin was 9.96%, a decrease of 4.38 percentage points year-on-year but an increase of 0.36 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [7]. - Alumina prices have continued to decline, with the average price in Q1 2025 at 3863.5 yuan/ton, up 15.44% year-on-year but down 27.35% quarter-on-quarter. The price trend suggests that the company's profits are likely to continue recovering [8]. - In Q1 2025, the average capacity utilization rate for electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan reached 99%, compared to about 81% in the same period last year. This improvement, along with favorable electricity supply conditions, has boosted the company's sales. The domestic aluminum spot price averaged 20455 yuan/ton, up 7.22% year-on-year, and is expected to recover due to strong domestic demand and favorable policies [9]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal years 2024A to 2027E, the company is projected to have revenues of 544.50 billion, 55.15 billion, 56.08 billion, and 56.73 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 27.6%, 1.3%, 1.7%, and 1.2% [12]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 4412 million in 2024A to 8214 million in 2027E, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 11.5%, 40.9%, 17.5%, and 12.4% [12]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 13.2% in 2024A to 21.2% in 2027E, indicating a positive trend in profitability [12].