华新水泥（600801）：走向全球的水泥龙头

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [12]. Core Views - The company is distinct from domestic peers, classified as a cyclical growth stock, with domestic cement profits at a turning point above the bottom [3][7]. - Growth is driven by overseas cement expansion, providing new growth points through cross-regional market expansion, while the aggregate business is stabilizing, expected to contribute steady profits in the medium term [3][7]. Summary by Sections Aggregate Business - The aggregate sector is less focused on real estate, showing stronger recovery momentum under stable growth conditions [8]. - Key advantages include regional pricing due to shorter transportation distances (within 50 km), flexible production with zero switching costs, and significant cost differences that prevent the aggregate sector from becoming the next cement sector [9][26]. - The company has established a leading position in the aggregate industry, with a focus on Hubei and a strong operational scale [9][32]. Overseas Market - The company is positioned to benefit from the African cement market, which has a current demand of 250 million tons per year, with potential growth to 770 million tons if consumption levels match those of North Africa [10][48]. - The company has a competitive edge in technology and management, with a current market share of about 5% in Africa, indicating significant expansion potential [10][48]. - The company is acquiring cement assets in Nigeria, with a production capacity of 10.5 million tons, expected to enhance profitability post-integration [10][61]. Domestic Cement Market - The domestic cement market is facing challenges, with a projected demand decline in 2024, but potential recovery is anticipated in 2025 due to supply-side reforms and increased infrastructure investment [11][73]. - The company expects significant improvements in price and profitability in 2025-2026, with projected earnings of 2.6 billion and 3.1 billion yuan, respectively [11].