Zhujiang Brewery(002461) 万联证券·2025-04-25 09:25Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Add" [5] Core Views - The company has maintained a high net profit growth rate, with revenue growth improving compared to the same period last year. In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.227 billion yuan (YoY +10.69%), an increase from the previous year's growth of +7.05%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 157 million yuan (YoY +29.83%), although this was a decrease from the previous year's growth of +39.37%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 145 million yuan (YoY +39.4%), down from +45.79% in the same period last year [2][3] - Both gross margin and net margin have improved, while selling expense ratio and management expense ratio have slightly decreased. In Q1 2025, the gross margin was 45.00% (YoY +2.87 percentage points), and the net margin was 13.16% (YoY +1.79 percentage points). The selling expense ratio, management expense ratio, R&D expense ratio, and financial expense ratio were 15.78%, 7.78%, 3.17%, and -3.34%, respectively, showing a decrease of -0.84 percentage points and -0.25 percentage points [2][3] - The company is expected to continue its high-end product strategy, which is anticipated to sustain steady growth. The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 951 million, 1.021 billion, and 1.110 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.43%, 7.29%, and 8.72% [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.227 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.69%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 157 million yuan, up 29.83% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 145 million yuan, reflecting a 39.4% increase [2][3] - The beer price per ton was 4,164.19 yuan, a slight decrease of 0.86% year-on-year, while beer sales volume reached 294,600 tons, an increase of 11.66% [2][3] Profit Forecast - The updated profit forecast for the company indicates net profits of 951 million yuan in 2025, 1.021 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.110 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.43, 0.46, and 0.50 yuan per share [3][4] Valuation Metrics - As of April 24, the closing price was 10.11 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 22.377 billion yuan. The corresponding PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 24, 22, and 20 times, respectively [5][4]