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新东方-S(09901):FY25Q3业绩点评:核心教育业务收入稳健增长,出国及文旅业务拖累利润

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The core education business shows steady revenue growth, while the overseas and cultural tourism businesses are dragging down profits [1] - For FY25Q3, the company achieved net revenue of 1.183billion,ayearonyeardecreaseof2.01.183 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 87 million, a year-on-year increase of 0.1% [5][6] Revenue Performance - FY25Q3 net revenue (excluding revenue from self-operated products and live e-commerce) was 1.038billion,representingayearonyeargrowthof21.21.038 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.2%, aligning with previous guidance [6] - Breakdown of revenue sources includes: - Overseas exam preparation business: revenue grew by 7.1% - Overseas consulting business: revenue grew by 21.4% - Domestic exam preparation for adults and university students: revenue grew by 17.0% - New education business: revenue grew by 34.5% [6] Profitability Analysis - FY25Q3 operating profit margin was 10.5%, up from 9.4% in the same period last year; Non-GAAP operating profit margin was 12.0%, compared to 11.8% [8] - The report anticipates that the core education business's Non-GAAP operating profit margin will improve year-on-year in FY25Q4, despite pressures from the overseas high-end one-on-one business and cultural tourism [8] Future Outlook - The company expects FY25Q4 net revenue (excluding self-operated products and live e-commerce) to be between 1.009 billion and 1.037billion,representingayearonyeargrowthof101.037 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 10%-13% [7] - The revenue growth rate is expected to slow down due to increased base effects and macroeconomic uncertainties [7] Financial Forecasts - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for FY2025-2027 to 406 million, 536million,and536 million, and 679 million, respectively, reflecting a conservative outlook [9] - Corresponding EPS for FY2025-2027 is projected to be 0.25,0.25, 0.33, and $0.42, with current stock price corresponding to P/E ratios of 19x, 14x, and 11x [9]