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财政深度:从“四本账”透视2024,债务压力区域分化与财税政策应对的再平衡
长城证券·2025-04-25 12:03

Group 1 - The fiscal system in China shows significant revenue and expenditure differentiation, with public budget tax revenue growth slowing to 1.35% year-on-year in 2024, while non-tax revenue relies on local asset revitalization, raising sustainability concerns [1][2] - Government fund budgets are impacted by a 12.18% year-on-year decline in land transfer fees, with over 80% of local revenue dependent on land sales [1][2] - The balance of local government debt is highlighted, with special debt accounting for 65% of total local government debt, and interest payments on 30-year treasury bonds reaching 352.9 billion yuan, representing 4.5% of public budget expenditure [1][2] Group 2 - Regional fiscal differentiation is intensifying, with the East relying on high-tech industries to alleviate pressure, while the North shows mixed results due to real estate impacts, and the Southwest faces challenges from declining land finance [2][3] - National tax revenue is projected to decline by 3.4% in 2024, exacerbating conflicts with rigid growth in social spending, and the retreat of land finance reveals hidden risks in special debt coverage [2][3] - The central-local fiscal relationship is continuously optimizing, with central transfer payments reaching 1 trillion yuan, accounting for 84% of local primary revenue, and reforms focusing on matching local responsibilities with fiscal powers [1][2][3]