三联虹普：毛利率持续提升，看好工业AI发展-20250425

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of RMB 23.80 [8][9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 1.07 billion and a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 318.3 million for 2024, showing a year-on-year decline of 14.1% in revenue but an increase of 9.6% in net profit [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from the downstream demand for PA66 and recycled materials, with industrial AI business anticipated to drive new growth [1]. - The gross margin has been consistently improving, reaching 68.4% in Q4 2024, which is a significant increase of 28.8 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The financial expense ratio has decreased significantly, contributing to improved profitability, while operating cash flow has been negatively impacted by increased dividend payments [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenues of RMB 7.1 million from new materials, RMB 2.8 million from recycled materials, and RMB 0.7 million from industrial AI solutions, with respective year-on-year changes of -10.2%, -27.5%, and +12.4% [2]. - The gross margins for these segments were 48.7%, 39.8%, and 43.1%, reflecting improvements in new and recycled materials despite a decline in industrial AI [2]. - The company’s operating cash flow for 2024 was RMB 1.9 billion, down 24.9% year-on-year, primarily due to increased dividend distributions [3]. Growth Prospects - The company’s gross margin for Q1 2025 was 45.9%, an increase of 8.4 percentage points year-on-year, indicating ongoing enhancement in profitability [4]. - The company has signed a contract for a nylon 6 civilian silk project worth RMB 170 million, which is expected to benefit from the nylon industry’s growth [4]. - The industrial AI business is projected to evolve further, contributing to the company's growth trajectory [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are RMB 3.8 billion, RMB 4.6 billion, and RMB 5.5 billion, respectively, reflecting a slight downward adjustment of 6% from previous estimates [5]. - The company is assigned a valuation premium with a target PE of 20x for 2025, leading to a target price of RMB 23.80, down from RMB 25.20 [5].