好未来（TAL）：产品结构扰动预期，核心主业仍强劲

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $14.82 [7][8]. Core Insights - The company reported 4QFY25 revenue of$610 million, a year-over-year increase of 42.1%, but below Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 47.2%. The Non-GAAP operating profit was a loss of $1.69 million, significantly lower than the expected profit of$36.38 million, primarily due to a slowdown in the learning machine business and changes in product structure. However, the company's education business continues to grow rapidly both online and offline [1][2]. - The education services revenue for 4Q is estimated at approximately $436 million, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 43$21.8 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase in expense ratio of 6.4 percentage points, while management expenses grew only 1% year-over-year [3][4]. - The company is transitioning from a high-speed expansion phase to stable growth, with an expected revenue growth rate of 46% for the tutoring business and 50% for online schools in FY26 [4][5]. Financial Projections - The company expects FY26 revenue to be approximately $3.006 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 33.59$226 million, reflecting a significant increase from the previous year [6][12]. - The report provides a detailed breakdown of financial metrics, including an expected Non-GAAP operating profit margin of 5.49% for FY26, an increase of 2.74 percentage points year-over-year [4][12]. - The company’s valuation is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) approach, applying a 25x P/E for learning services and a 30x P/E for the learning machine business, leading to a target price of $14.82 [15][16].