GDTC(688186) 国信证券·2025-04-25 12:37Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Outperform" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company is experiencing a recovery in its casting and gearbox businesses after a period of heavy asset investment, with expectations for improved performance in the coming years [1][3]. - The wind power industry is witnessing a simultaneous increase in both onshore and offshore installations, with significant growth projected for 2025 [2][43]. - The company has successfully optimized its product structure and is focusing on high-margin products, which is expected to enhance profitability [26][30]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Established in 2006, the company specializes in special steel materials and has expanded into the wind power sector since 2008, producing components such as main shafts, castings, and gearboxes [1][8]. - The company has invested over 5 billion yuan in capacity expansion for wind power castings and gearbox components since 2019, which has put pressure on its financial performance [1][33]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 337 million yuan, 405 million yuan, and 464 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 194%, 20%, and 15% [3][4]. - Revenue is expected to grow significantly, with a forecast of 5.83 billion yuan in 2025, representing a 45.6% increase from the previous year [4]. Market Trends - The domestic wind power market is expected to see a substantial increase in new installations, with onshore capacity projected to reach 100 GW in 2025 [2][43]. - The report highlights a recovery in wind power casting prices, which had been under pressure for several years, with expectations for a rebound in 2025 [2][88]. Business Segments - The casting business is anticipated to turn profitable in the second half of 2024, driven by price recovery and structural optimization [30][41]. - The gearbox components segment is also expected to enter a growth phase starting in 2025, with advancements in technology and production processes [3][42]. Valuation - The estimated fair value of the company's stock is between 30.56 and 32.47 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 18% to 25% compared to the current share price of 26.00 yuan [3][5].