4月中央政治局会议简评：债市影响偏中性

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The meeting affirmed the economic work since this year, stating that the economy shows a positive trend, social confidence is continuously boosted, and high - quality development is steadily advanced. However, the foundation for the continuous recovery of the Chinese economy needs further consolidation, and external shock impacts are increasing [1]. - More proactive and effective macro - policies should be implemented, making full use of fiscal and monetary policies. Fiscal policy will see an acceleration in the issuance and use of local government special bonds and ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, and monetary policy may involve reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and the creation of new structural monetary policy tools [1]. - Supporting consumption and expanding domestic demand, as well as preventing risks and ensuring people's livelihoods, are key directions. Policies will focus on boosting service consumption, clearing restrictive measures in the consumption field, and promoting the stable recovery of the real estate market [2]. - In the face of increasing Sino - US trade frictions, the government will strengthen support for enterprises, such as increasing the proportion of unemployment insurance fund for job - retention returns for affected enterprises [3]. - The meeting emphasizes the leading role of technological innovation in developing new - quality productive forces and plans to launch a "technology board" in the bond market [3]. - The impact of the meeting on the bond market is expected to be neutral in the short term, with long - term bond yields likely to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the impact of the peak supply of government bonds in May and the actual impact of external demand on the macro - economy [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Economic Situation Review and Judgment - The meeting affirmed the economic work since this year, with the economy showing a positive trend, social confidence continuously boosted, and high - quality development steadily advanced. But it also pointed out that the foundation for the continuous recovery of the Chinese economy needs further consolidation, and external shock impacts are increasing [1]. 3.2 Policy Orientation 3.2.1 Macro - policy - Fiscal policy: Use and make full use of a more proactive fiscal policy, accelerate the issuance and use of local government special bonds and ultra - long - term special treasury bonds. It is expected that the supply of government bonds will peak from May, and the short - term fiscal support for the economic fundamentals to stabilize will be more obvious [1]. - Monetary policy: Use and make full use of a moderately loose monetary policy, with a re - emphasis on "timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts". New structural monetary policy tools and new policy - based financial tools will be created to support economic development in areas such as technological innovation, consumption expansion, and foreign trade stability [1]. 3.2.2 Consumption and Domestic Demand - Support consumption and expand domestic demand. Increase the income of low - and middle - income groups, vigorously develop service consumption, and enhance the role of consumption in driving economic growth. Clean up restrictive measures in the consumption field and set up service consumption and pension re - loans [2]. 3.2.3 Risk Prevention - Continue to resolve debts and focus on the stable recovery of the real estate market. Accelerate the construction of a new real - estate development model, increase the supply of high - quality housing, optimize the policy for purchasing existing commercial housing, and consolidate the stability of the real - estate market [2]. 3.2.4 Support for Enterprises - In the context of increasing Sino - US trade frictions, increase the proportion of unemployment insurance fund for job - retention returns for enterprises greatly affected by tariffs, and strengthen support for enterprises going global [3]. 3.2.5 Technological Innovation - Place technological innovation in a prominent position, cultivate and expand new - quality productive forces, build a number of emerging pillar industries, and promote key core technology research. Innovate and launch a "technology board" in the bond market and accelerate the implementation of the "Artificial Intelligence +" action [3]. 3.3 Impact on the Bond Market - The impact of the meeting on the bond market is expected to be neutral in the short term, with long - term bond yields likely to fluctuate. On one hand, observe the impact of the peak supply of government bonds in May and the timing and intensity of loose monetary policy implementation; on the other hand, pay attention to the actual impact of external demand on the macro - economy [3].