森麒麟（002984）：24年报及25Q1点评：短期成本冲击Q1盈利承压，看好摩洛哥25年放量

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Insights - The company achieved a record high performance in 2024, with revenue of 8.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.53%, and a net profit of 2.19 billion yuan, up 59.74% year-on-year [2] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a decline in performance due to cost pressures, with revenue of 2.06 billion yuan, down 2.79% year-on-year, and a net profit of 361 million yuan, down 28.29% year-on-year [3] - The Moroccan project is expected to ramp up significantly in 2025, potentially producing 6-8 million tires, enhancing the company's global competitive position [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company sold 30.49 million semi-steel tires, a 7.12% increase year-on-year, and 916,400 full-steel tires, a 15.52% increase year-on-year [2] - The average selling price in 2024 was 270.7 yuan per tire, a 1.1% increase year-on-year, contributing to a gross margin of 32.84%, up 7.63 percentage points year-on-year [2] - For Q1 2025, semi-steel tire sales were 7.16 million, down 1.6% year-on-year, and full-steel tire sales were 213,700, down 34.6% year-on-year [3] Cost and Margin Analysis - The cost of raw materials increased in Q1 2025, with synthetic rubber and natural rubber prices rising by 10.9% and 27.4% respectively [3] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 22.75%, down 8.57 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin was 17.57%, down 6.25 percentage points year-on-year [3] Future Outlook - The Moroccan project is anticipated to enhance the company's production capacity and global presence, creating a "golden triangle" layout with operations in China, Thailand, and Morocco [4] - The company is focusing on high-end product development, having already gained recognition in the U.S. and European markets [4] - Profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 1.93 billion yuan and 2.29 billion yuan respectively, with a projected net profit of 2.54 billion yuan in 2027 [5]