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金禾实业(002597):2024年报及2025年一季报预告点评:Q1业绩同比高增,食品添加剂景气度提升中

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating expected performance above the market average [1][10]. Core Insights - The company is projected to benefit from the improving market conditions in the sucralose industry, with a significant year-on-year increase in Q1 2025 earnings forecasted [1][10]. - The revenue for 2024 is expected to be RMB 5.30 billion, showing a slight decline of 0.15% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders is projected at RMB 557 million, down 20.94% year-on-year [10]. - The company is expanding its product categories and production capacity in new energy and semiconductor materials, aiming to create an integrated industrial ecosystem [10]. Financial Summary - 2024 Financials: Revenue of RMB 5.30 billion, net profit of RMB 557 million, and a decrease in gross profit margins across various segments [4][10]. - 2025 Projections: Expected revenue of RMB 6.23 billion, net profit of RMB 1.27 billion, and an EPS of RMB 2.23 [4][10]. - 2026-2027 Forecasts: Continued growth with projected revenues of RMB 6.77 billion and RMB 7.03 billion, and net profits of RMB 1.51 billion and RMB 1.63 billion respectively [4][10]. Performance Metrics - The company’s gross profit margins for food additives, bulk chemical raw materials, and functional chemical intermediates were reported at 27.15%, 7.11%, and 0.65% respectively, with year-on-year changes of -5.61 percentage points, -3.10 percentage points, and +14.99 percentage points [3][10]. - The expected EPS for 2025 is RMB 2.23, with a target price set at RMB 33.35 based on a PE ratio of 14.99 [10]. Market Position - The company is positioned to leverage the recovery in the food additives market, particularly in sucralose and acesulfame, which are expected to see improved market conditions [10]. - The stock has shown a 15% increase over the past 12 months, outperforming the benchmark index [5].