CGN POWER(003816) 华源证券·2025-04-25 14:09Investment Rating - The investment rating for China General Nuclear Power Corporation is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company's performance in Q1 2025 was below expectations, with a revenue of 20.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.41%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 16.1% [8] - The decline in performance is primarily attributed to a decrease in market-based electricity prices, increased costs, and higher income tax expenses [8] - The company achieved an on-grid electricity volume of 45.22 billion kWh in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14.1%, but revenue growth was limited due to a drop in on-grid electricity prices [8] - The auxiliary service policy in Liaoning is expected to enhance profitability for the Hongyanhe unit, despite a decrease in electricity volume [8] - The company has 16 units under construction, ensuring long-term growth in installed capacity, with the potential injection of the Huizhou unit expected to start within the year [8] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: 82.549 billion yuan (2023), 86.804 billion yuan (2024), 87.604 billion yuan (2025E), 90.547 billion yuan (2026E), and 95.866 billion yuan (2027E) [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 10.725 billion yuan (2023), 10.814 billion yuan (2024), 10.823 billion yuan (2025E), 11.299 billion yuan (2026E), and 11.999 billion yuan (2027E) [7] - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for the years 2025 to 2027 is estimated to be 16.47, 15.78, and 14.86 respectively [7] - The dividend payout ratio for 2024 is expected to be 44.36%, with corresponding dividend yields for 2025 to 2027 projected at 2.7%, 2.8%, and 3.0% [8]