China Express(002928) 申万宏源证券·2025-04-26 08:14Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company achieved a turnaround in 2024 with total revenue of 6.696 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.98%, and a net profit of 268 million yuan, compared to a net loss of 965 million yuan in the previous year [9] - The first quarter of 2025 showed continued growth with revenue of 1.774 billion yuan, up 9.78% year-on-year, and a net profit of 82 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 232.31% [9] - The company benefits from the ongoing recovery in civil aviation demand and has actively increased flight volumes and fleet utilization [9] - The new subsidy policy from the Civil Aviation Administration supports the company's performance, with other income rising to 1.293 billion yuan in 2024, a 144.78% increase year-on-year [9] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2025 are estimated at 7.941 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 18.6% [8] - The net profit forecast for 2025 is 624 million yuan, representing a 132.7% increase compared to 2024 [8] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve significantly, reaching 10.1% in 2025, up from 1.8% in 2024 [8] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 15.7% in 2025, indicating strong profitability [8]