BAOWU MAGNESIUM(002182) 民生证券·2025-04-26 12:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a current price of 12.24 CNY [7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 8.983 billion CNY in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17.4%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 47.9% to 160 million CNY [3][4]. - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.636 billion CNY, a year-on-year growth of 26.2%, but the net profit dropped significantly by 94.1% year-on-year to 5.87 million CNY [3][4]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.033 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%, while the net profit decreased by 53.58% year-on-year to 28.18 million CNY [3][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's net profit in 2024 decreased by 147 million CNY, primarily due to increased expenses and taxes, which reduced profits by 156 million CNY [4]. - Despite a significant drop in magnesium prices, the company's gross profit increased by 22.39 million CNY, driven by growth in aluminum alloy deep processing products and other segments [4]. - In Q4 2024, the net profit decreased by 28.1 million CNY, while gross profit increased by 76.46 million CNY, indicating a mixed performance [5]. Price and Cost Analysis - Magnesium product prices fell both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, with Q4 2024 magnesium ingot and alloy prices at 16,900 CNY/ton and 18,700 CNY/ton, respectively [5][6]. - The cost of silicon iron and coal decreased in Q4 2024, contributing to a reduction in overall production costs [5]. Growth Potential - The company has significant growth potential with ongoing projects, including a 300,000-ton magnesium and alloy project in Qingyang and a 50,000-ton magnesium project in Chao Lake [6][9]. - The company plans to enhance its cost advantages with a new 300,000-ton silicon iron project, which will help reduce production costs further [6][9]. Profit Forecast - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downward due to declining magnesium prices, with expected net profits of 306 million CNY, 529 million CNY, and 692 million CNY for the respective years [9][10].