BAOFENG ENERGY(600989) 中泰证券·2025-04-26 12:44Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative performance increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [3][19]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company is expected to benefit from falling coal prices, leading to high dividends and growth potential. The company's earnings forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected to be 12.48 billion, 14.05 billion, and 15.47 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.3, 9.1, and 8.3 [3][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 10.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 23.7%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.44 billion yuan, up 71.5% year-on-year and 35.3% quarter-on-quarter [6][15]. - The company's gross margin and net margin for Q1 2025 were approximately 35.4% and 22.6%, respectively, reflecting improvements due to increased volume and expanded price differentials in the olefin business [6][16]. Business Segments - The olefin business showed significant growth, with revenues from polyethylene and polypropylene reaching 3.614 billion and 3.205 billion yuan, respectively, marking year-on-year increases of 76.7% and 83.6% [6][15]. - The report notes that the company's production capacity for olefins has expanded to 5.2 million tons, positioning it as a leader in the domestic coal-to-olefin industry [6][5]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue benefiting from cost advantages due to falling coal prices, which are projected to enhance its competitive position in the coal-to-olefin market [6][5]. - The report anticipates that the company's production and sales volumes will see significant growth as new projects come online, particularly in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang [6][5].