新澳股份（603889）：连续第19季营收同比正增，海外基地战略意义重大

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xin'ao Co., Ltd. (603889) [2] Core Views - The company has achieved a continuous 19 quarters of year-on-year revenue growth, with significant strategic importance of overseas bases [1] - The financial performance for 2024 and Q1 2025 met expectations, with 2024 revenue at 4.84 billion yuan (up 9.1% year-on-year) and net profit at 428 million yuan (up 6.0% year-on-year) [6][7] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.3 yuan per share, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 51% and a dividend yield of approximately 5% based on the current stock price [7] - The gross profit margin has shown an upward trend, with Q1 2025 gross margin at 20.8% (up 0.9 percentage points year-on-year) [7][10] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 5.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.3% [6] - The net profit forecast for 2025 is 450 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.0% [6] - Earnings per share are projected to be 0.62 yuan for 2025 [6] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 12.4% in 2025 [6] Business Overview - The main business segments include: - Wool spinning: 2024 revenue of 2.54 billion yuan (up 1.8% year-on-year) with a gross margin of 26.8% [7] - Cashmere yarn: 2024 revenue of 1.55 billion yuan (up 26.6% year-on-year) with a gross margin of 11.1% [7] - Wool tops: 2024 revenue of 670 million yuan (up 0.9% year-on-year) with a gross margin of 5.2% [7] - The company is expanding its production capacity in Vietnam and the UK, which is expected to enhance its competitive position in the global supply chain [7] Valuation and Market Outlook - The report adjusts the profit forecast for 2025-2027, estimating net profits of 4.5 billion yuan, 5.1 billion yuan, and 5.8 billion yuan respectively [7] - The target price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2025 is set at 13 times, indicating a potential market value increase of 31% from the current valuation [7]