海外策略周报：多数市场对关税敏感度降低，但中期压力尚在-20250426

Global Market Overview - Most global markets experienced a rebound this week, with a notable decrease in sensitivity to tariff news from the Trump administration, although medium-term pressures remain [1][8] - The TAMAMA technology index's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio rose to 29.4, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's P/E increased to 38.1, indicating high valuations [1][11] - The S&P 500 Shiller P/E ratio increased to 34.22, significantly above historical averages, suggesting potential overvaluation in the U.S. market [1][11] U.S. Market Performance - The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all rebounded, with weekly gains of 4.59%, 6.73%, and 2.48% respectively [3][11] - The technology sector within the S&P 500 saw a significant increase of 7.93%, while the consumer staples sector declined by 1.36% [11][15] - Major tech stocks such as Nvidia, Facebook, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are expected to lead further declines in the U.S. tech sector amid ongoing economic policy uncertainties [1][11] Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Hong Kong Chinese Enterprises Index all saw increases of 2.74%, 2.32%, and 0.05% respectively [24][30] - The Hang Seng Technology Index rose by 1.96%, with significant gains in the healthcare sector, which increased by 8.37% [28][30] - Key stocks in the Hang Seng Index included Xiaomi Group, WuXi Biologics, and CSPC Pharmaceutical, with gains of 13.71%, 11.22%, and 9.89% respectively [30][34] Emerging Markets - Emerging markets also showed signs of recovery, with the Mexican MXX index rising by 6.98% and the Brazilian IBOVESPA increasing by 3.93% [10][24] - However, several emerging market indices, including those in Istanbul, Argentina, and Brazil, are expected to face continued pressure due to economic fundamentals and policy uncertainties [1][11] Economic Data Insights - In April 2025, the UK GFK consumer confidence index fell to -23, down from -19, indicating declining consumer sentiment [39][45] - The U.S. Kansas City Fed manufacturing output index dropped to -5% in April, down from 1%, reflecting weakening manufacturing activity [41][45] - The Michigan University consumer sentiment index also decreased to 59.8 in April, down from 63.8, further highlighting economic concerns [45][46]