流动性跟踪：资金面，量变到质变

Liquidity Overview - In April, the liquidity environment transformed from quantitative to qualitative changes, with funding rates R001 and R007 both falling below the annual lower limit of 1.7%[1] - The central bank injected a total of 511 billion CNY during the tax period from April 18-22, signaling support for the liquidity environment[1] - On April 24, the central bank announced a 600 billion CNY MLF operation, reinforcing the "loose monetary" signal and providing further support for liquidity[1] Funding Rates and Trends - On April 21, the first day of fund withdrawals, R001 and R007 increased slightly by 6bp and 1bp respectively, but subsequently, R001 decreased from 1.74% to 1.58% by April 25[1] - The 7-day funding rate R007 also fell from 1.73% to 1.66% during the same period, indicating a trend of easing liquidity[1] Market Outlook - Despite the upcoming month-end and holiday liquidity pressures, funding rates are expected to continue declining, with R014 dropping from a peak of 1.86% on April 17 to 1.77% by April 25[2] - Government fiscal spending at the end of April typically ranges between 1.8 to 2.0 trillion CNY, which is expected to support the liquidity environment[2] Open Market Operations - From April 21-25, the central bank net injected 774 billion CNY, with reverse repos contributing 882 billion CNY and MLF operations totaling 600 billion CNY[3] - The upcoming reverse repos maturing from April 28-30 amount to 504.5 billion CNY, indicating a significant liquidity event[3] Bill Market Activity - During April 21-25, bill rates increased, with the 1M discount bill rate rising from 1.06% to 1.21%[4] - Major banks net purchased 509 billion CNY in bills during this period, with a total net purchase of 5.598 trillion CNY for April[4] Government Debt and Net Payments - The net payment for government debt rose to 121.1 billion CNY for April 28-30, recovering from a previous week’s negative 130.1 billion CNY[5] - The planned issuance of government bonds for this period is 93.1 billion CNY, all of which are local bonds, with no national bonds scheduled for issuance[5] Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The weighted issuance rate for interbank certificates of deposit decreased at a slower pace, with a rate of 1.77% from April 21-25, down only 0.2bp from the previous week[6] - The upcoming maturity pressure for certificates of deposit is expected to drop significantly to 353 billion CNY from the previous week’s 778 billion CNY[6]